London, UK
Embargoed, 10:00am Tuesday 27th January 2026 

earthly.org/project-assessment-keystone-3

A new survey of 200 Chief Sustainability Officers and sustainability decision makers reveals that fears about climate project credibility and reputational risk are actively delaying or preventing corporate investment in climate and nature (51%). In response, Earthly is launching Keystone 3.0, a next-generation, science-led assessment framework designed to restore confidence and unlock credible action across carbon, biodiversity and social impact.

The survey findings point to a growing confidence gap at the heart of voluntary carbon and nature markets. 23% of CSOs report that fear of criticism and greenwashing now outweighs the fear of inaction. Many (14%) say they struggle to publicly defend claims linked to nature-based projects, despite strong internal ambition and board-level pressure to act.

Earthly’s assessment data underscores the scale of the problem. After screening more than 1,000 nature projects over five years, the company found that 92% fail to meet minimum quality thresholds when assessed holistically across carbon integrity, biodiversity outcomes and social safeguards. Many projects excel in their carbon impact, but most fail when it comes to details like Indigenous rights, protection of water quality, satisfactory evidence and additionality.

From trust paralysis to credible action

Earthly’s Keystone 3.0 project assessment has been developed explicitly to address this confidence gap. CSOs cited “Independent, science-based project assessments” as the number one thing that would “most increase confidence to invest in, and communicate about, nature restoration”. 

Keystone 3.0 independently evaluates projects across more than 160 data points and three equally weighted pillars: carbon, biodiversity and people. The framework stands out in the market as it is uniquely ecosystem-agnostic and registry-agnostic, enabling consistent comparison across project types, geographies and verification standards.

The methodology applies strict minimum thresholds. Projects that fail to meet baseline standards are rejected outright, even if carbon data appears strong. This reflects growing recognition that climate impact cannot be separated from ecological integrity or community outcomes.

Keystone 3.0 also introduces an AI-assisted pre-assessment, designed to screen projects at scale and flag integrity risks early, while keeping scoring grounded in human-expert scientific review. Advanced evidence sources including geospatial monitoring, satellite imagery, bioacoustics and eDNA are used to validate claims and reduce reliance on unsupported narratives.

A critical moment for UK and global nature markets

The launch comes at a pivotal time for UK and global sustainability leaders. New disclosure regimes, including ISSB standards and TNFD, are raising expectations for verifiable, decision-useful data. At the same time, voluntary markets remain under intense scrutiny following high-profile integrity failures. 

Keystone 3.0 is now in action to support businesses, investors and project developers seeking to identify and accelerate high-integrity nature-based solutions, and to communicate their impact with confidence.

“Confidence, not ambition, is the blocker”

Early users of the framework say the depth of scrutiny is long overdue.

(Project Developer) Ivan de Klee, Head of Natural Capital at Nattergal, said:

“An excellent assessment framework; really focussed and addressing appropriate areas of integrity, well balanced too. The framework allowed us to produce our own evidence and documentation. Saving time and allowing us to demonstrate higher integrity with a range of evidence.”

(Project Developer) Kate Truby, Head of Sales & Partnerships at The Future Forest Company, said:

“One of the most thorough assessments we’ve been through. We found there to be a lot of 'narrative' underpinning in terms of biodiversity and people, which is something other frameworks often overlook. This level of due diligence in place feels important to maintaining confidence in restoration as a whole.”

(Customer/buyer) Graham Odds, Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer at Scott Logic, added:

"Earthly’s rigorous approach to evaluating and selecting climate action projects reflects and amplifies the central role that business plays in society by initiating innovative ways to create opportunity in our communities and society at large, and to safeguard the future of the natural environment."

Oliver Bolton, Chief Executive and Co-founder of Earthly, said:

“What we’re hearing from CSOs is clear. Ambition isn’t the issue - confidence is. Leaders want to invest in nature, but they need defensible evidence they can stand behind. Keystone 3.0 is designed to give them that confidence, by setting a clear, science-based bar for what high-integrity projects actually look like.”